What's Next for the EU?
France’s resounding rejection of the European Constitution in a referendum vote last week has me wondering what’s going to happen next in the EU. I must admit a rather elementary understanding of the political forces at play here, but it would seem that a “no” vote from one of the founding members of the European Union will have some serious effects on the future of this constitution in its present form. I believe the Dutch vote on it this week, but even if they choose to adopt the constitution, can it proceed without French support? This editorial in the Washington Post would seem to indicate that it’s not the end of the world for the EU; they still have their 2001 agreement under which to operate. And it suggests some interesting sub-motivations—mainly French nationalism in the face of growing pro-US sentiment in Eastern Europe—for France’s vote to reject the document. The editorial also posits that EU countries won’t vote for a change in economic policy while they themselves are in such precarious economic positions. So, is it back to square one for the EU or can they salvage something from this mess and move forward in a way that is satisfactory to its member nations?
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I overheard a commentator saying the EU model was easily understood and workable for the group of 6, and in subsequent enlargements, but that the EU today, with its 25 member nations, is not possessed of a single -- or even reconciliable -- political voice. The new Eastern European member nations are more dynamic, hungrier, more enamored with and ready to embrace US-style capitalism then France and some of the older, more traditional European powers. And that stress, that contention and butting of heads, threatens the future of the EU, vis a vis the ratification of its proposed constitution. Fascinating stuff, and for those of us who committed to reading The European Dream, all the more reason to read and discuss that book (which I bought at full price in hardcover, dammit!)
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