Schmolitical Poll 'o the Week
Will Harriet Miers get confirmed? Why or why not?
Weigh in, Schmoliticians!
posted by Sean @ 10/12/2005 09:09:00 PM
13 comments
Politics Schmolitics
We are a group of friends and acquaintances -- a merry band of pranksters indeed -- who have been arguing about politics on-and-off, then really on, then a little off... since 1998. On email. But that meant literally thousands of emails a year. That was too many. So here's the blog dedicated to carrying on that spirit of political and pop culture argument and dialogue. You might think of us as "schmoliticians", because while we take politics seriously, we try not to take ourselves quite so.
Wednesday, October 12, 2005
Weigh in, Schmoliticians!
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13 Comments:
I'd like to say "no" but I'm just not sure. If you listen to Pres. Bush, she's a lock. But, there seems to have been some pretty hardcore opposition to her nomination from conservatives, even from within the White House, and I just don't know if he has the political capital to push this one through. I get the impression that the Republicans are beginning to distance themselves from Bush, not wanting to go down with a "sinking ship" so to speak, in order to set themselves up for 2008. So, maybe this will be another issue for them to differentiate the party from Bush's brand of Republicanism, especially now that he is making Miers' religion an issue. Not to digress, but I read an interesting piece this morning, can't remember where but I'll look it up, about whether or not Miers will have to recuse herself on most of the issues Bush had hoped she'd rule favorably on because of her previous involvement in them as White House counsel.
My prediction: she gets confirmed after much rancor and chest-thumping on the part of Dems (and Conservatives eyeing their chances in '08). Oh, and a super-close vote.
And she goes on to become the most conservative justice this country has ever seen ;-)
I can't wait for the hearings. She'll either confirm the speculation or astonish those who've been underestimating her.
I haven't got it all quite worked out yet, but I think that there's a larger strategy at play - something that includes Miers not being confirmed and/or the odds of a third vacancy.
Not to go off on a rant, but Social Conservatives (SC’s) are distancing themselves from Bush because he filed to nominate an unapologetic overtly pro-life judge. They were ready (and hoping) for that fight. They're preparing for Presidential primary mode and are desirous of a candidate right-of-Bush. To achieve that, they must actually BE right-of-Bush, or move Bush to the left.
Personally, I believe that the SC’s will be responsible for the implosion of the Republican Party. We're at the tipping point already with the Party being so beholden to them, with few brave enough to be a real R’s anymore anyway.
My brand of Republicanism appears in organizations like the Republican Main Street Partnership and Its My Party Too. I would recommend the book by Christy Whitman for which it was named - there are a fair amount of us still around. These are the folks that Josh remembers... where there was principled room for the Libertarians...
What’s the risk of losing the SC’s? Where are they going to go, to the Democrat Party? Is another Jimmy Carter that big of a risk?
Both Parties are a caricature of themselves. Pelosi, DeLay, Dean, Limbaugh, Reid, O’Reilly, Begala… Are there any leaders standing anywhere behind them? I’m starting to become convinced that because there’s such an uneducated, apathetic population in America that only the loud, proud, and crazy get involved. By the time the average voter starts paying attention, (in a Virginia Gubernatorial race, for instance, that will be sometime next week), they can’t find who they want on a ballot. People just don’t care enough about sending Mr. Smith to Washington.
I have also wondered if Miers is "taking one for the team" so that the real choice will sail through.
Unsure of what choice needs that sort of lead blocker, however.
Also, I'm not so sure your voting pattern will hold up, Shanan. Unless a whole lot of conservatism shows through in her papers or hearings, might not a coalition of Dems and mod GOP approve her with a small majority? That's not to say she won't veer heavily right and leave egg on everyone's face.
Confirmed.
Confirmed. (I reserve the right to change my prediction once she opens her mouth).
Confirmed.
Harris?
Okay, I'm not Harris, but I say confirmed.
And, Randy, not to tempt the fates, but I completely agree with your points about the Social Conservatives and their potential to harm their own party. I also consider myself a fiscal Conservative, social Liberal. Currently, the Republican party constantly betrays it own ideals pandering to this one group. And, I don't understand their fear. I know this is a powerful group, that votes. But, what is their alternative? Does anyone believe a Social Conservative would vote for a Democrat? No way! John McCain seems to be the only Republican who isn't afraid of these people.
I don't think its a matter that anyone is scared of the SCs going elsewhere (although candidacies like Pat Buchanan have screwed GOP Prez candidates in the past), its more a matter of them being a reliable and well-funded block of voters. If you go SC, you get lots of $$ and a large block, a decisively large block, of guaranteed voters. Just what every pol wants, lots of $$ and guaranteed voter turnout. That's what the SCs have to offer.
The worry is not that they'll suddenly start voting for Ralph Nader or Hilary Clinton, the worry is that they'll stay home and keep their pocketbooks closed. Hate to say it, but moderates don't get so frenzied that they'll spend big $$ and turn out in guaranteed droves to ensure their party wins. Perhaps that the essence of being moderate?
Sorry for the delay...
*Not* Confirmed
Good point, Pete. That is exactly what the Dems have forgotton. A low approval rating doesn't translate to a White House loss. Polls show that the majority of Americans are moderate and disagree with the SC agenda, but they are so apathetic when it comes to putting their votes where their views are. The Dems have to find a way to energize Americans into action if they want to be successful.
And all signs point to their a) not finding a way to do that and b) not being successful. If Republican mis-steps are the only way a Dem can have a shot at getting elected in 2008, then there are dark days ahead. Even with Cheney under investigation.
True. If the last 5 years have taught us nothing, its that you must give the American people a reason to elect you, not just a good reason NOT to elect the other guy.
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