And Now, Back to the War
Sebastian Mallaby's column today in the Washington Post is a spinless, sober snapshot analysis of where we are right now, as a nation, with and in Iraq. Worth reading, especially for the historical and statistical analyses of other intrastate wars (civil wars).
I believe we should and must withdraw from Iraq now, to precipitate the inevitable civil sectarian conflict there -- and admittedly, the horrific bloodshed which is sure to follow it -- and to motivate the other international powers to committing troops and resources to stabilizing the situation.
Thoughts?
posted by Sean @ 11/06/2006 12:29:00 PM
4 comments
4 Comments:
Here's a thought (and not one with which I necessarily agree, but it's something that crossed my mind a day or two ago):
Could a civil war be a good thing for Iraq? Or at least a way for things to be sorted out, a leader to emerge--kind of a like a Darwinian, survival of the fittest evolutionary step for the country?
Alternatively (and this idea I *do* agree with), would it be such a bad thing to split Iraq into three separate provinces/countries--Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish? I know this would involve the displacement of people and there would problems creating territorial boundaries, but the nature of the sectarian violence we're seeing now is such that I have serious doubts about whether these groups can realistically co-exist in peace.
Finally, I heard a Democratic candidate for Congress on NPR the other day talking about why it was time to withdraw from Iraq. He said that when we first invaded, we had 3 missions--find WMD (if there were any), depose Saddam Hussein, and give the Iraqi people a chance at democracy. According to this candidate, all three missions were achieved--we didn't find WMD, Saddam was brought to justice, and there were free elections in Iraq. Now, it's time for us to come home. Sounds pretty reasonable to me.
Regarding partioning of Iraq into 3 semi-autonomous states along ethnic lines, from what I've heard, that leaves the Sunnis in a Central Iraq region that does not have the natural oil wealth that is present in the North and South. As a result, you have one population dependent on revenue sharing from the other two. How long do you suppose that will last until someone decides they don't want to share and we're back into sectarian war?
I agree with Mike on this idea. The Gaza Strip is proof positive that an arbitrary land partition does little more than promote resource envy and a constant state of conflict.
Then I'd suggest there's no viable course of action than to deliver an ultimatum to the UN Security Council and the world community that we will be pulling out of Iraq on a certain date - leaving only a modest peacekeeping force behind -- and if they (the world) wants to have an even slightly stable Middle East that they better send their own peacekeeping force(s)... and FAST.
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